An all-English matchup is taking place Thursday in the Europa League, with Aston Villa taking a trip to The City Ground for the first leg of this semifinal matchup vs. Nottingham Forest. The Reds have performed well in this competition despite their ongoing Premier League relegation battle. Forest have advanced to this stage of the competition with narrow victories over Fenerbahçe (4-2 aggregate), FC Midtjylland (2-2 agg, 3-0 PK), and FC Porto (2-1 aggregate). On the other hand, Aston Villa have been more dominant with 3-0 and 7-1 aggregate wins over Lille and Bologna, respectively. The two English sides have played twice this season, with a draw in their recent April 12 matchup and a 3-1 home win for Aston Villa back in January.
Nottingham Forest are listed as +145 favorites, with Aston Villa narrowly behind at +195.
Here are my official picks for Nottingham Forest vs. Aston Villa:
Ollie Watkins to Score or Assist (+160)
Ollie Watkins has delivered a goal or assist in all four Europa League knockout games. The Villa striker has been picking up form as of late, with 4 G/A in his last four Premier League games. Watkins also scored the opening goal when the two teams played back in January.
Both Teams to Score (-130)
While Nottingham Forest’s home form in the Europa League has been questionable, it would be difficult to bet against a team that has scored nine goals in its last two games. While I believe Aston Villa can potentially steal this one away from home, Nottingham Forest can definitely find the back of the net.
Aston Villa Moneyline (+195)
Aston Villa have not won a Premier League match away from home since January 25, and have not defeated Nottingham Forest on the road since Forest’s promotion to the Premier League in 2022. So why believe they can win on the road in this game? Well, Aston Villa have won five of their six Europa League away games this season, scoring in all six. In the Europa League this season, Nottingham Forest lost to Fenerbahće at home in the Knockout phase, lost to Midtjylland at home in the Round of 16, and narrowly defeated a 10-man Porto team 1-0 in the Quarter-finals.
Aston Villa has also been the better overall Premier League team, so it’s a question of whether you would lean more towards league or European form in this matchup. In this case, I’ll lean more towards Aston Villa and Unai Emery’s squad taking a lead back to Villa Park next week.
3-leg Parlay with the above picks (+650); 3-leg Parlay substituting for Forest moneyline (+963), 3-leg Parlay substituting for a tie (+772)
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