Arsenal, who have yet to lose in the Champions League this season, have advanced to the semifinals and now face a tough visit to the Metropolitano to face Atletico Madrid. The London club is currently top of the Premier League and has progressed through the UCL knockout stages with wins over Bayer Leverkusen (3-1 aggregate) and Sporting Lisbon (1-0 aggregate). Atletico Madrid’s journey has not been as straightforward, which began with a 7-4 agg. win over Club Brugge in the play-off round. Atletico Madrid passed by a struggling Tottenham in the Round of 16 (7-5 agg.), before knocking out FC Barcelona (3-2 agg.) in the quarterfinals. The winner of this match will play the winner of PSG vs. Bayern Munich in the final on May 30th.
Despite the first leg taking place in Madrid, Arsenal are currently listed as road favorites (+150). Atletico Madrid is currently listed as +200 to win the first leg at home.
Here are my official Champions League picks and analysis for Atletico Madrid vs. Arsenal:
Over 2.5 Goals (+120)
Arsenal’s defensive record has been a bit questionable in their recent run, conceding multiple goals to Man City twice, Southampton, and Bournemouth. On the other hand, Atletico Madrid has scored multiple goals in four straight games and in all but one of their six UCL knockout games this season. Arsenal also scored four past Atletico when these two teams met in the league phase back in October. Many expect a low-scoring affair, but both teams can’t sit back for 90 minutes. Therefore, I expect to see goals.
Both Teams to Score (-116)
With the expectation of seeing goals in this game, I believe both teams will find the back of the net. As mentioned above, Arsenal’s defense has vulnerabilities, and Atletico Madrid has scored in all but one home game this season. While Arsenal have looked sluggish in their attack as of late, Atletico Madrid haven’t kept a clean sheet in five matches. Both teams will have their chances to score.
Julian Alvarez to Have 3 or More Shots (+100)
Julian Alvarez will be leading the line for Atletico Madrid and has never been afraid to let the ball fly. The Argentine is averaging 3.4 shots per game over his last five played. Alvarez also had 3 shots vs. Arsenal in their previous meeting in October. If Atletico is going to get a good result at home, they will need Alvarez to step up.
3-leg Parlay with the above picks (+328); 4-leg Parlay, adding Arsenal to win (+831); 4-leg Parlay, adding Atletico to win (+881); 4-leg Parlay, adding a tie (+2158)
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