Arsenal and Atletico Madrid are meeting again on Tuesday for the second leg of the UEFA Champions League semifinal. The two teams played last Wednesday at the Metropolitano, with the game finishing 1-1 via two penalties from Julian Alvarez and Viktor Gyokeres.
Both teams played over the weekend under very different circumstances. Arsenal are in the heat of a very competitive title race with Manchester City and were forced to play a full team versus Fulham on Saturday. Atletico Madrid has essentially secured their top-4 spot this season and was therefore able to play a fully rotated side against Valencia this weekend. Despite extra rest for Atletico, it will not be an easy task for the Spanish team as they look to upset Arsenal at the Emirates and qualify for their first Champions League final since 2016.
Here are my official picks for Atletico Madrid vs. Arsenal:
Julian Alvarez to Have 3 or More Shots (+160)
In the first leg, I spoke of Julian Alvarez and how he’s never been afraid of letting the ball fly. He continued his trajectory with two shots on target, two shots off target, and two blocked shots in the first leg. He will lead Atletico’s line again, and I expect another big-time Alvarez performance. However, he is a potential injury threat.
Half-Time Result: Draw (+125)
Atletico Madrid, away from home, knows the game will play into Arsenal’s favor. While possession may favor Arsenal in the first half, I think Atletico Madrid will do a good enough job to hold them off until at least the second half. A 0-0 first half would not be a shocking result for me.
Arsenal Regulation Time Result (-170)
Atletico have conceded six goals in three away Champions League knockout games this season, giving up three goals to both Club Brugge and Tottenham. Arsenal also beat Atletico 4-0 at the Emirates in October’s league phase meeting. On top of this, Atletico have never won at the Emirates in any competition. I do not expect this match to go to penalties, and I would be surprised if Arsenal do not take care of business at home.
3-leg Parlay with the above picks (+1088)
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